2035 Amtrak Connect US Map, Interstate High Speed Rail Funding

2035 Amtrak Connect US Map

Interstate High-Speed Rail Funding

To build great Sustainable Transportation and related Sustainable Energy infrastructure, America must inject higher federal & state funding. That is the make-or-break political challenge in a nation still addicted to oil & gas. But if we break that addiction, we’ll attract substantial private funding to High-Speed Rail projects. — Thomas Dorsey, Soul Of America

Sound Demographics Merit Higher Passenger Rail & Rapid Transit Funding

Amtrak is a federal agency dependent on the political swings of Congress, Presidents, State Legislatures, and Governors. One byproduct of that functional ambivalence is a 2035 Amtrak Connect US Map designed to please too many political districts rather than attract high ridership for high Benefits over  Costs like Europe, Japan, and China enjoy.

Another byproduct is that Amtrak features Long-Distance routes with average speeds slower than driving and 1 daily roundtrip. All but three Amtrak Regional routes have 80-90 mph top speeds and less than 8 daily roundtrips. Based on corridor population & traffic demographics, Amtrak ridership could be two orders of magnitude higher if it had Western Europe-style Infrastructure and train frequencies.

U.S. mega-regions are home to 82% of the nation’s population and generate nearly 90% of GDP. For purposes of investment and planning coordination, consider Northern California, Southern California & Las Vegas as one mega-region. The Texas Triangle plus Oklahoma should be another mega-region on the America 2050 Mega-Regions Map.

Each mega-region has 150-650-mile corridors of 7-50 million population that can justify High-Speed Rail (HSR) projects. Over a dozen 100-350-mile corridors of 3-6 million population can justify Regional Rail upgrade projects. Those corridors have population densities like Western Europe in the 1970s & 1980s when they accelerated public investment in HSR and Regional Rail.

America 2050 Mege-Regions Map

America 2050 Mega-Regions Map; source Regional Plan Association

America’s 10 mega-regions screaming out for a world-class Interstate HSR System with Regional Rail extensions.

America Can Afford Sustainable Infrastructure

In the 20th century, our federal, state, & county governments invested nearly $2 trillion in Highways and $750 billion in Aviation. Private companies also invested billions in Coal-powered electric plants, plus Oil & Gas infrastructure that helped power America to global economic leadership.

In the 21st century, every advanced nation needs great Passenger Rail and Rapid Transit to balance with great Highways and Aviation so each mode specializes in what it does best.

To catch up or surpass America’s Highway, Passenger Rail, Rapid Transit, and Energy infrastructure, China invests 5.6% of GDP, while Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Spain, and Germany invest 0.7% to 1.3% of GDP in Passenger Rail and Transit infrastructure.

In comparison, America invests only 0.5% of GDP. Our Aviation infrastructure is keeping pace, but Highways are overburdened and our Passenger Rail and Rapid Transit are poor.

The U.S. economy reached $27 Trillion in GDP by 2024. We don’t need the same GDP percentage of Infrastructure investment as China. But we should invest 1.3% of Annual GDP Infrastructure investment to catch up with Japan and Western Europe in the not-too-distant future.

World Economy 2023

The World Economy in 2023; source Visual Capitalist

We don’t have to shake down couches to find the money. Politifact says that America spent over $6 trillion on two Middle East wars from 2001-21. After those two wars, we freed up money but did not cut wasteful Military Spending.

As Scientific American explained in 2020, “The Pentagon has a track record of profligate spending. If it were a private corporation, gross mismanagement would have forced the Pentagon into bankruptcy years ago. Dysfunctional internal controls, abetted by years of lax congressional and Inspector General oversight have enabled it to waste about $100 billion annually on a parade of overpriced, botched, and bungled projects.

In 2022, the U.S. government spent 3.3% of the nation’s Annual GDP ($877 billion) on Military Spending, but only 0.5% of its Annual GDP on Infrastructure. With better oversight by the Inspector General and Congress, America can easily reduce Military Spending by 7%. That alone would free $61 billion/year towards Infrastructure while maintaining a Military Strength advantage over China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea combined.

To capture another $40 billion/year for 21st-century Infrastructure, federal politicians should eliminate tax loopholes that help some big corporations and rich citizens pay a lower tax rate than Office Administrators. Those two adjustments can move America to 0.9% of Annual GDP on Infrastructure investment.

Political Rollercoaster to Fund Sustainable Transportation & Sustainable Energy

While campaigning for President in 2020, Joe Biden floated his proposal for an oddly named $3.5 Trillion/5 Year Infrastructure Proposal that included funding for Education and Health Care.

From his decades of experience and based on election outcomes, President Biden knew that he could not get enough votes to pass such a large proposal through the 2021 U.S. Senate, so he cut it to $2.5 Trillion/5 Years by stripping out Education and Health Care. Combined with standard annual budgets that would set our Transportation, Energy, Waterworks & Cybersecurity Infrastructure on a path to world-class status by 2040. He sent the 2nd Infrastructure Proposal to the U.S. House of Representatives for a vote.

Within the 2nd Infrastructure Proposal, Democrats in the House of Representatives proposed $205 billion/5 years for High-Speed Rail projects. That federal funding scale would have attracted about $100 billion/5 years in state, county, city & private funds enabling High-Speed Rail & Regional Rail projects. About $200 billion/5 years for Rapid Transit projects could have also been funded. The 2nd Infrastructure Proposal was large enough for the most critical infrastructure in all 50 states. At the end of the 5-year BIL, there would be enough public momentum to increase funding levels.

The Democrat-led U.S. House of Representatives approved the 2nd Infrastructure Proposal and sent it to the U.S. Senate. It was quickly shot down.

President Biden returned with a 3rd Infrastructure Proposal of $2.0 Trillion that would still be a difference-making sum. That was narrowly shot down in the Senate as well.

Recognizing that he would have to “Cut Muscle” on Infrastructure, Biden submitted a 4th Infrastructure Proposal for $1.75 Trillion. That amount passed the House of Representatives again. It could have allocated an extra $125 billion/5 years each for Federal Railroads and Federal Transit projects on top of their annual USDOT budgets.

Why Can't I Chill on More High-Speed Trains?

When will America get serious about funding High-Speed Rail like other nations?; credit gilaxia

Due to the worst political warfare, his 4th Infrastructure Proposal narrowly failed in the Senate again.

Long story short, a bipartisan group of Senators representing mostly rural states dominated by Highway, Oil & Coal interests “Cut Bone” on Infrastructure investment. They kneecapped Infrastructure upgrades to only $1.2 trillion/5-years that protected funding for Highway surface repair and a number of bridge projects. If Congressional Democrats and President Biden did not sign the $1.2 trillion/5-year proposal into Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), America’s Highway bridges, Passenger Rail, Rapid Transit, Sustainable Energy, Waterworks, and Cybersecurity Infrastructure would have fallen further behind in addressing 21st-century challenges.

With no better option, Congressional Democrats and President Biden signed the 5-year BIL in November 2021. It allocated a paltry $66 billion to Federal Railroads and $39 billion to Federal Transit.

Within that $66 billion for Railroads, only $42 billion goes to High-Speed Rail (HSR) projects. A difference-making $30 billion goes to the Amtrak Northeast Corridor HSR and $3 billion combines with $8 billion private investment for the Las Vegas-Rancho Cucamonga (Southern California) HSR project. America’s showcase project, California HSR, received only $3.3 billion despite having over 90% of its project Ready-to-Build or Near-Ready-to-Build. To obtain political support around the country, another difference-making $24 billion goes to new Amtrak Regional & Long-Distance trains and removes a few freight rail bottlenecks.

The $9 billion BIL remainder for HSR ensured that California HSR and every other HSR project compete like crabs in a barrel for scraps.

At America’s 2024 pace of HSR funding, China, Japan, and Western Europe will extend their massive HSR Kilometer lead by 2030. Ditto for Rapid Transit networks.

NOTES: 100 Kilometers = 62.14 Miles. The oldest International Standard to merit the “HSR” designation is a train sustaining 200 Km/Hour (124 Miles/Hour) for over 50% of a route. Today, most HSR projects are 250 Km/Hour (155 Miles/Hour) or faster.

Combining More Public & Private Funds for HSR & Regional Rail

Unlike China’s planned 43,500 HSR miles, which include some long routes for political reasons, America only needs 26-27,000 HSR miles based on sound Transportation Planning practices. Since BIL funding is nowhere close to the need, Congressional Democrats and President Biden narrowly pushed through a USDOT annual budget that boosts Federal Railroads and Federal Transit by $8 billion each. Combined with an annual slice from the 5-year BIL, the Secretary of Transportation planned to invest $142 billion in FY2023 (1 October 2022 – 30 September 2023) as follows:

$70.5 billion in Federal Highways
$23.6 billion in Federal Aviation
$21.1 billion in Federal Transit
$17.9 billion in Federal Railroads

Even if the $21.1 billion for Federal Transit (majority Rapid Transit) and $17.9 billion for Federal Railroads repeated evenly over the BIL’s 5-year length, they do not make up for underfunding Passenger Rail and Rapid Transit since the Vietnam War ended in 1974. At the current pace of funding, America will have only 1,568 HSR miles by 2030. That’s 3 times less HSR than Spain, a country with only 6% of America’s GDP.

Since Passenger Rail, Rapid Transit, and Sustainable Energy will remain highly politicized in America this decade, voters must press presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, and state assembly candidates of all parties to commit to higher budgets for them in the 2024, 2026 & 2028 Election cycles.

California is the poster child for the most deserving state. It has the highest population, most intra-state highway congestion, and most intra-state regional flights. It produces the most GDP and technical innovation. It contributes the most public funds to HSR & Regional Rail projects. Despite severe federal underfunding, the California HSR project is on pace to open/upgrade 230 miles of route by 2031. The next 270 miles to open/upgrade will be more costly per mile if federal funding is not accelerated.

To address the severe shortfall in HSR project funding, U.S. Representatives Seth Moulton and Suzan DelBene co-authored the $205 Billion/5 Year American High-Speed Rail Proposal again in 2024 by. We need similar federal funding to accelerate Rapid Transit projects listed in Part 5.

If taxpayers can afford the F-35 Fighter Jet program costing over $1.7 Trillion we can certainly afford $205 billion to accelerate Interstate HSR & Regional Rail System construction and $200 billion for Rapid Transit construction.

Taming Mega-Project Inflation

Generation Y & Z born after 1981 is the new majority of voters. Polling indicates that Generation Y & Z want more Sustainable Transportation & Energy. The current $42 billion for HSR projects combined with the $205 billion American HSR Proposal can attract $125 billion in state, county, city & private funding. $350 billion is enough to accelerate all 12 HSR projects listed in Part 6 of this series. So-called Red States & Blue States would equally benefit from millions of new blue & white-collar jobs.

Transportation scholars Alon Levy at TransitCosts.com and Yonah Freemark at TheTransportPolitic have studied HSR, Regional Rail, Commuter Rail & Metro Rail best practices around the world, particularly parts of Western Europe most similar to America. To ensure we get our money’s worth, Alon and Yonah identified several Best Practices from Western Europe to limit cost inflation. We need federal, state, and county leaders to follow these best practices:

1. Converge federal & state Environmental Reviews with smarter policies that shorten timelines
2. Hire more Passenger Rail expertise directly into Transportation Agencies to limit contractors
3. Standardize more construction elements for economies of scale that lower cost
4. Remind the public that projects include funding to purchase Rights-Of-Way (ROW) property
5. Publicly illustrate how each local project fits in the Interstate HSR & Regional Rail System Plan
6. Using real examples, explain to the public how environmental impacts will be mitigated
7. Build many HSR, Regional Rail and Rapid Transit projects simultaneously

We also need news media convincing states, counties & cities to advance ROW acquisition early, as news media did for the Interstate Highway System and International Airports in the 1950s and 1960s. The public must be engaged to improve, but not halt Sustainable Transportation projects with NIMBY lawsuits that trigger project cost inflation. We must also ensure that whoever gives up project ROW is compensated at the market rate.

Will Generation Y & Z Save Us?

The United Nations says we are in a death race to prevent a 2° Celcius temperature rise by 2050 that threatens our way of life. To slow down Global Warming, every advanced nation must accelerate Sustainable Energy investments, plant more trees, and recycle & reuse more plastic.

The American Society of Civil Engineers says that we need several hundred billion dollars more in Electric Grid investment for Sustainable Energy.

We built the Interstate Highway System and International Airports with both parties winning project funds for their voters. America can win again by building Sustainable Infrastructure faster in all 50 states to limit project cost inflation.

Generation Y & Z voters impacted the 2022 Election. They will experience more negative impacts from Global Warming and will become ever larger percentages of 2024, 2026 & 2028 voters.

They can vote for politicians who increase Passenger Rail, Rapid Transit & Sustainable Energy project funding and direct Highway funding to surface & bridge repair, NOT highway widening.

In 2024, Generation Y & Z voters can install political leaders to pass the $205 billion/5 Year American HSR Act. Based on evidence to date, that amount will likely attract $100 billion/5 years of matching funds from state, county, city, and private sources.

By 2030, the 171-mile California HSR Merced-Bakersfield segment will demonstrate 220 mph and the 170-mile Las Vegas-Rancho Cucamonga HSR line will demonstrate 180 mph mileage. California will power its HSR mileage with 100% Sustainable Energy. Amtrak Northeast Corridor HSR will feature over 120 miles of 140-160 mph speeds, and be more resilient to sea level rise. We’ll grow from 6 current to 12 metro areas having Rapid Transit networks that are worthy alternatives to Highway & Boulevard congestion.

Those factors should inspire voters to demand at least $75 billion/year in combined federal, state & local investment each for Passenger Rail and Rapid Transit. There should also be a multiple of current investments in Sustainable Energy.

The Interstate High-Speed Rail System We Need

Based on my High-Speed Rail training at Mineta Transportation Institute and insights from TheTransportPolitic, PedestrianObservations, and America 2050 Research Framework, and attending HSR, Commuter Rail & Metro Rail public hearings, I learned how to identify viable routes that maximize Benefits over Costs. We have better alternatives than highway widening and new airport runways that increase flight paths over residential areas.

In my opinion, the U.S. High-Speed Rail Association and High-Speed Rail Alliance have the best Vision Maps based on sound transportation planning principles.

Since America is 30 years behind Western European HSR & Regional Rail investment, I favor the bold 2050 U.S. High-Speed Rail Association Network Map presented in their video.

Similar to Western Europe’s best practices, the 2050 Interstate HSR System should be engineered for 140 mph through long tunnels, 160-180-200-220 mph speeds elsewhere, and operate 34-76 daily roundtrips. We should upgrade 14 Regional Rail routes to 110-125 mph speeds connected to Interstate HSR and operate them as 17-76 daily roundtrips, with frequency depending on corridor density.

In that manner, we can form a definitive 2050 Interstate HSR & Regional Rail Map delivering the same Benefits over Costs that Western Europe enjoys 10 years sooner in 2040.

Part 1: America Could Have Built a Great HSR System

Part 2: Global Economic Competitors Enjoying Massive HSR Benefits

Part 3: Population Growth, Air Pollution at Odds with Highway Expansion

Part 4: Alternatives that Fall Short of Regional Mobility Needs

Part 5: Rapid Transit Expansion, A Key to Better Mobility

Part 6: Scale of Interstate HSR System Needed

~~~ SUPPLEMENTAL HIGH-SPEED RAIL ARTICLES ~~~

Interstate High Speed Rail Taxonomy

American Passenger Rail History

Interstate High Speed Rail Lies & Truths

Interstate High Speed Rail Energy Sources/

Amtrak Acela High Speed Rail Progress

California High Speed Rail Progress

Las Vegas-Southern California High Speed Rail Progress

~~~ OTHER HIGH-SPEED RAIL RESOURCES ~~~

USDOT High Speed Rail Program

U.S. High Speed Rail Association

High Speed Rail Alliance

Brookings Institution: Vision for High Speed Rail in America

California High Speed Rail Authority

Southeast High Speed Rail

Texas High Speed Rail

U.S. Conference of Mayors – High Speed Rail

PedestrianObservations HSR Map

TheTransportPolitic

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