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Prior to President Obama, the federal government invested only $4 billion to upgrade a 436-mile High Speed Rail line for passengers in the Northeast Corridor (DC-Baltimore-Philadelphia-NYC-New Haven-Boston) and less than $1 billion upgrading the remaining 22,000 rail miles used by passengers. When President Obama submitted his 2010 budget to Congress, it directed $8 billion to Amtrak from the economic stimulus & recovery package and he added $1 billion for High Speed Rail (HSR) corridors in each of the next five years. That sums to $13 billion of federal funds that do not require matching state and local funds. It is by far, the largest federal funding of U.S. passenger rail ever. His actions suggest a poetic bookend to President Lincoln authorizing the trans-continental railroad project amidst the Civil War. The first Black President, whose mantra is “Change We Can Believe In“, kick-started HSR across the continent amidst two wars and a huge recession. So what’s not to like?
U.S. rail routes, to an overwhelming degree, are controlled by freight train companies. By law, freight train companies lease tracks to Amtrak, but they have little incentive to upgrade routes for better passenger service. So excluding the Northeast Corridor, America’s legacy rail routes used by passengers suffer from any combination of:
* curvy & bumpy track profiles and old signaling that can’t support high speeds
* older trains incapable of reaching higher speeds
* bridges and tunnels too antiquated to support higher speeds
* trains traveling in opposite directions that alternate sharing a single track
* sharing tracks with slow freight and commuter trains
* speed slowdowns to switch tracks for passing or maintenance
* too many places where autos cross train tracks
* people and animals wandering onto unfenced tracks
Compared to President Eisenhower, who kick-started our super-highway system in 1956 and commercial jet aviation that began under his watch in 1958, the federal government has invested $1.8 trillion (inflation adjusted) in those modes of transportation. Our super-highway (freeway & tollway) and aviation systems helped vault America to global superpower and changed our lifestyles, land-use and energy-use patterns in ways unimaginable at the beginning.
Interstate Freeway System Map proposed in 1955
Recognizing shortcomings in our passenger HSR system, the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) under President Obama with ongoing funding by Congress, plans to finish upgrading the Northeast Corridor and make important contributions to HSR in Florida, California and Illinois. But everywhere else, USDOT overplays benefits derived from trains that reach 79, 90 or 110 mph top speed. Compared to the original Interstate Super-Highway Map in 1955 (construction began in 1956) showing a 10 year build-out, the High Speed Rail Corridor Designations Map leaves so many route gaps it appears that politicians in 16 states didn’t have enough clout to make it on the map.
U.S. High Speed Rail Corridors Map 2009
This politically and technically poor map result occurs because states compile passenger train projects, then submit them to the federal government to meet railroad regulations and to request federal funding for projects. Some states containing large traffic corridors never filed HSR applications. This bottom-up process used for HSR is exactly opposite the top-down process successfully used for super-highways and airports.
Other world leaders are using the top-down approach to master plan, fund and complete comprehensive HSR networks between 2020-25. Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, France, Spain, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Czech Republic, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, South Africa, Turkey, India, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela are investing single, double, and triple-digit billions of dollars. Those investing single-digit billions are spending a higher percentage of annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) than America, in one case as high as 8% of GDP.
Given the significant planning and investment cost, there must be huge motivations to complete HSR networks by 2025. Before addressing those Big Carrots & Sticks of motivation, one should first understand the taxonomy of passenger train speeds and their application benefits. This step is important because High Speed Rail has misinformed definitions for most Americans, including many in Congress.
TAXONOMY OF PASSENGER TRAIN APPLICATIONS
Commuter Routes reach 50-79 mph. They compose the majority of America’s 22,000 miles of legacy rail shared between freight trains, Amtrak, and commuter trains that average 30-50 mph over route lengths. Though perfectly suited for freight trains, these routes have so many speed-limiting factors named earlier, passenger applications are only suited for diesel-powered commuter trains that stop frequently and slow dinner trains on short scenic routes. Examples are Pacific Surfliner, Amtrak’s second busiest route, which serves the San Luis Obispo-Santa Barbara-Los Angeles-San Diego corridor and Coaster commuter train serving the San Diego-Oceanside corridor.
Amtrak Pacific Surfliner (left) and San Diego Coaster (right)
Regional Routes reach 90 mph. They host diesel-powered freight and Amtrak trains on legacy routes, though freight trains are limited to 79 mph top speed. These routes have at least two tracks. In areas where autos cross tracks, they have safer crossing arms, but passenger trains must also slow to 79 mph or less when crossing roads. Stops are often 10-20 miles apart so they average only 50-55 mph. They are used in scenic routes by people with a lot of time on their hands. Pacific Surfliner route is currently being upgraded to this level.
Emerging HSR Routes reach 110 mph. They are partially upgraded Regional Routes running diesel- or electric-powered trains. The emphasis of these trains is to eliminate slow zones, increase punctuality and service frequency. In areas where autos cross tracks, they slow to 79 mph. So Emerging HSR Routes have more auto overpasses/underpasses and in some stretches, a bypass track to permit longer stretches of higher speed than 90 mph routes. The average speed of these trains ranges from 50-70 mph, depending on the number of slow zones and distance between stops — longer distance stops is better for travel between large cities. Electric-powered trains require overhead electrical wires called “catenaries”, that are touched by pantographs extended from the top of trains. They touch to transmit electricity to the train’s electric motor. Poles must tautly suspend catenaries over the entire route to maintain contact with the pantograph, so they are built at significant extra expense over diesel-powered trains. By 2015-ish, most diesel-engine trains will convert to cleaner-burning biofuel engines. But they are not expected to support higher than 110 mph top speed. Thus, 110 mph routes are well suited for regional routes under 150 miles or under 3 hours and longer scenic routes where trip time is not an issue. If the trains run 95% on-time with 2 hour trip times, this level of service can attract business travelers. Trains like Amtrak Pacific Surfliner should be upgraded to this level.
High speed train Pantograph extending up to a Catenary (electric wire)
Regional HSR Routes reach 124-142 mph (200-230 kmph). The speed of 200 kmph was established by Japan, the HSR pioneer, as the international minimum speed for “High Speed Rail.” Regional HSR Routes have auto overpasses & underpasses over their complete distance. In urban areas, the routes are fenced-off. Track profiles have improved bedding, leveling, and are continuously welded for a smoother ride. Given their expense to install and maintain, catenaries are better suited for Regional HSR and faster routes that draw more patronage. Regional HSR routes have 2 fast tracks and at least 1 other track to pass slower trains at different points in the route. A train control system safely enables 12-20 daily passenger trains each way. When stops are 25-60 miles apart, average speeds of 70-85 mph result. Business travelers prefer them over flights that have distances of 200-250 miles or up to 3 hours. When priced less than flying, leisure travelers prefer them up to 280-360 miles or 4 hours.
Amtrak Acela HSR train stopped in Baltimore
Express HSR Routes travel up to 149-175 mph (240-281 kmph) feature many new bridges and tunnels, 2 inside tracks for high speed-only trains that feature near-state-of-the-art track profiles, 2 outside tracks for commuter trains and freight trains, plus fencing over the entire route. Poles are spaced more closely for tauter suspension of the catenaries to maintain greater contact with the pantographs and transmit more electric power to the engine for higher speeds. Most trains have tilt-wheel suspensions and these routes often get mild straightening (1-10 feet) for higher speed through curves in some stretches. Maintaining stops further apart and having advanced train control systems, Express HSR trains can operate 30-36 times daily in each direction with 95-97% schedule dependability. Business class features leather seating, electrical outlets, WiFi, in-seat dining service and separate dining cars. Depending on the length of straightaways and fewer stops, these trains average 100-125 mph and cut significant minutes from trip times – and business travelers are huge fans. Around the world, Regional HSR Routes are being upgraded to HSR Express Routes. For example, in the NYC-DC route segment Acela Express trains are limited to 135 mph top speed plus many slow zones that produce a 2 hours 47 minute trip time over its 236-mile length. Once upgrades complete, current Acela Express trains will reach 160 mph and fewer slow zones for a 2 hours 15 minute trip time. Though tilt-trains will probably be capable of 200 mph in the near future, lack of space between parallel tracks for safely tilting will limit them on legacy rail routes — my estimate is to 175 mph top speed. Nevertheless, business travelers worldwide prefer Express HSR over flights that have distances of 300-360 miles or up to 3 hours trip time. When priced less than flying, leisure travelers prefer them up to 400-500 miles or 4 hours trip time.
TAV, the Italian VHSR train about to depart a station
VHSR Routes travel up 186-236 mph (300-380 kmph). Very High Speed Rail routes are the Swiss watches of railroading. They have state-of-the-art track profiles and longer straightaways for the smoothest ride at higher speeds. Once they leave urban areas, their route is 2 high speed-only tracks with wider gap between them to reduce the vibration of trains passing in opposite directions. Curves are milder than Express HSR Routes and curved tracks are banked, so tilt trains are not needed. Like freeway interchanges, VHSR routes use flyovers to eliminate crossing other tracks at same the level. Completely fenced-off, routes are monitored to detect objects that fall onto tracks before a train arrives. Only weight-limited aerodynamic trains run on them to maintain alignment stability under frequent loads. More precise tension between catenaries and pantographs transmit even more electric power to engines and the newest catenary operates as cold as –58 degrees Fahrenheit. VHSR trains have the most advanced wheels, braking and train control systems. The French tested the world’s fastest VHSR train running up to 575 kmph (357 mph); it stayed glued to the tracks like white on rice. To produce 135-175 mph average speed, most stops are 60-125 miles apart. In France and Japan, some VHSR routes run up to 15 trains per hour. Both countries use nuclear energy to power trains and can carry 700-1100 passengers per trainset, yet they have a carbon dioxide footprint barely larger than a Toyota Prius. More impressively, Japan and France have transported billions of passengers without a single casualty and run at over 99.5% schedule dependability. A technology challenger to both France and Japan, in 2010 China began operating the world’s fastest HSR train at 217 mph and plans to operate it at 236 mph in 2011. Though France proved VHSR has a much higher “possible” speed limit, China may be approaching VHSR’s 248 mph (400 kmph) “practical” speed limit in commercial operation due to advanced wear factors on wheels, rail and catenaries. In other words you don’t want to run VHSR so fast that you must constantly replace parts like a race car. Business travelers prefer VHSR over flights that have distances of 400-500 miles or up to 3 hours. When priced less than flying, leisure travelers prefer them up to 650 miles or 4 hours.
MagLev, short for Magnetically Levitated Trains, requires powerful electro-magnets that use an extreme amount of electricity to both levitate and pull a large passenger train very fast above concrete tracks. They have small wheels that gently touch the concrete tracks when slowing to rest at a stop. Once a MagLev leaves the station and levitates forward, its wheels retract so there is no contact with tracks. Since there is no friction contact between high-speed steel wheels and rail, MagLev requires less track maintenance. MagLev accelerates faster than VHSR and climbs steeper gradients, so tunneling can be less expensive than VHSR. And now the cons! Traveling at higher speeds than VHSR, MagLev generates more external wind-resistance noise and vibration. It can not use any portion of existing rail tracks to save costs, so construction of MagLev costs twice that of new VHSR routes. MagLev requires a lot more electricity than VHSR. To justify construction costs double that of VHSR, MagLev needs to attract huge patronage at each endpoint who are willing to pay a premium for shorter trip time. Germany couldn’t figure out a way to make the numbers work, so they cancelled a planned MagLev between Hamburg and Berlin, then sought an external party to license the technology.
Fortunately for Germany, the Chinese government saw opportunity to marry a distant international airport with its largest business center (Shanghai, 19 million pop.) while garnering hundreds of millions of dollars worth of global PR to showcase its emerging technological prowess. Given that more media are talking about China’s fantastic MagLev than it’s history of poor product quality, they certainly got their money’s worth. Today, MagLev operates between Shanghai Pudong International Airport and a Shanghai suburban station. Spending only $6 per ride, passengers feel the thrill of smoothly accelerating to 267 mph top speed in less than 3 minutes. It takes only 8 minutes to cover 19 miles. Since China has much lower labor and land costs and greater imminent domain rights by government, the bill was only $1.3 billion and it completed construction in under 3 years. The MagLev is currently being extended 20 miles into downtown Shanghai. The next chapter unfolds in 2014, when the MagLev route extends a mostly flat 104 miles from downtown to Shanghai’s 2nd international airport and reaches 280 mph in route to Hangzhou (6.5 million pop.). At a construction cost of $5 billion more, China will soon have the world’s first Intercity MagLev. Theoretically, business travelers will prefer 280 mph MagLev over flights that have distances of 600-700 miles or up to 3 hours.
Next Generation MagLev is planned for Japan. It is a more interesting application for several reasons. Japan is targeting faster top speed & acceleration, lower electricity consumption, less wind-noise & wind-vibration, and testing in long mountain tunnels. The test MagLev in Japan has already set a world speed record of 361 mph (581 kmph). At this point, Japan plans to operate a 311 mph (500 kmph) NextGen MagLev traveling 272 miles between Tokyo and Osaka. MagLev also climbs steeper hills, which lowers tunneling costs compared to VHSR. Japan’s next generation VHSR will take about 122 minutes between Tokyo and Osaka, while NextGen MagLev would make fewer stops and take only 67 minutes. Japan has labor costs, land costs and imminent domain rights more similar to America. Furthermore, 60% of the route would tunnel deep under the Japanese Alps. The Tokyo-Osaka MagLev construction is forecast to cost upwards of $70 billion. NextGen MagLev proponents are betting that it will attract enough business travelers paying a premium to shave off 55 minutes each way. They may be right, since the growing business centers of Tokyo and Osaka already have 25 million and 18 million residents, respectively. To significantly lower its parts cost, electricity consumption, wind-vibration and wind-noise, the Japanese are working on breakthroughs in superconducting magnets, materials and aerodynamics. Given Japan’s outstanding VHSR network today, it has the luxury to wait for NextGen MagLev technological advancements to better justify covering a portion of construction costs. NextGen MagLev will be capable of 311-325 mph top speed. Coupled with stops spaced 140 to 300 miles apart for average speeds of 260-300 mph, business travelers, affluent tourists and tourists with frequent rider miles will prefer them over flights that have distances of 800-900 miles or up to 3 hours. If Japan’s NextGen MagLev enters commercial service by 2026-27 with operational standards similar to VHSR, it will become the model for selective application by other nations.
Now lets examine the “Big Carrots” driving all other leading nations to build intercity HSR networks at a massive scale, as quickly as possible.
