AMERICAN POLITICIANS NEED RESOLVE TO BUILD HIGH SPEED RAIL THE RIGHT WAY

If you've read Parts 1-6 of this article, you either believe in the Big Sticks and Big Carrots case for building an Interstate High Speed Rail System or you're an HSR critic in denial of overwhelming facts. If you're an HSR critic, nothing listed below will change your mind. For others, Part 7 describes the challenging process of paying for an Interstate HSR System and building faster to save costs.

In 1974, just after the first OPEC oil embargo, France made tough funding choices to begin building High-Speed-Only tracks with no roads crossing tracks. TGV between Paris and Lyon opened in 1981. By building HSR the right way early, France reaps huge patronage, operating profits and worldwide praise for its 2,000-mile TGV system today. Given the volatile Middle East dominates world oil prices and increasing oil demand by China and India, France is not waiting for oil to become more expensive. They are expanding TGV to 4,000 miles and expanding non-oil Transit in all major cities by 2020. All over Asia, Europe and now the Middle East, South America and two countries in Africa, Express HSR Routes have been built or are under construction to achieve massive benefits described in Part 2.

Responding to the same Big Carrots, Big Sticks and aware of America's disgraceful Infrastructure Report Card, President Obama envisions a new Interstate HSR System, more Transit, repaired Highways and dramatically higher MPG autos to help America achieve transportation-energy security.

After decades sitting on their hands, Obama's leadership triggered both parties in Congress to accept that we must upgrade the Northeast Corridor to an Express HSR route. We too must build new bridges & tunnels, eliminate road crossings, buy adjacent land for High-Speed-Only tracks, upgrade electrical wiring and install a state-of-the-art train control system. Unfortunately, it will now cost a healthy fraction of $52 billion. Despite that daunting cost, the first $14 billion will enable existing Acela trains to finally reach 160 mph over much of the route and eliminate the worst Slow Zones. How soon will it be funded?



From the $787 billion economic stimulus, President Obama allocated $8 billion to HSR and $5 billion/5 years to Amtrak, which invests most of its money in the Northeast. The 2010 Congress allocated $2 billon more to HSR projects. Obama spread the money around states using a patchwork-merit approach authorized by Ray LaHood, his Secretary of Transportation for the USDOT. States hosting Amtrak/HSR projects contributed $3-4 billion more for a total of $18-19 billion.

In 2010-11, Northeast Corridor HSR projects were awarded $920 million in Federal Railroad stimulus funds, about $1 billion in Federal Transit stimulus funds and nearly $1 billion in Amtrak funds (from the stimulus). California HSR project was awarded $3.9 billion in Federal Railroad stimulus funds and existing Amtrak California routes received $322 million. President Obama figured a new Surface Transportation Bill would be passed by Congress for his signature before 2010-end to continue ramping up Highway, HSR and Transit funding.

Thus far, only half of Congress agrees with him on a new Surface Transportation Bill. Until the whole of Congress agrees, Obama can not authorize LaHood's USDOT to fund more HSR, Transit and Highway repair funding beyond the current inadequate level.

INNOVATIVE HSR FUNDING PROGRESS IN CALIFORNIA, BUT CHALLENGES REMAIN

In April 2012, California HSR Authority announced a revised business plan for its 800-mile HSR system that will cost $68 billion. By 2018, the project will improve Caltrain commuter rail in the San Francisco Bay Area and Metrolink commuter rail in Los Angeles by upgrading "Blended Track" capacity that will ultimately be shared with California HSR for 110 mph service in urban areas. That's a safe, yet fast speed similar to how TGV operates in French urban areas. In 2020, the Initial Operating Section connecting Merced in the Central Valley to Sylmar in the San Fernando Valley will open. By 2022, California HSR Phase 1 (San Francisco-San Jose-Gilroy-Fresno-Bakersfield-Palmdale-Sylmar-Burbank-Los Angeles-Anaheim) will open 220 mph service in long, straight rural areas. Extensions to Sacramento and San Diego will complete California HSR system by 2028.

The revised business plan sounds great and California HSR System will be a showcase project for America. But where is the money to pay for it?

California is committing $10 billion from a voter-approved state HSR bond and $12-15 billion/15 years from an innovative Pollution Credit Cap & Trade fund. Commuter transit agencies in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area own the most expensive urban rail rights of way, thereby speeding up the construction timeline, lowering total costs and permitting state and local transit agencies to contribute about $5 billion of transit funds over 15 years. After the Blended Track upgrades complete, California HSR Authority has been assured that private companies will contribute $10-12 billion more. Private companies will do so because they already invest the same scale of funds elsewhere in the world for Express HSR and VHSR Routes designed to generate major profits.


Despite the fuzzy calculus of funding lengthy infrastructure projects, California voters and politicians have constructed a realistic approach to raise $37-40 billion/15 years within the state. Yet, the remaining $28-31 billion must come from federal transportation funds. If Congress and the President agree on significantly higher Transit and HSR funding, the 800-mile California HSR System can deliver these compelling benefits-to-costs compared to the alternatives:

• its cheaper than $120-170 billion (2011 dollars) for new highway and airport construction
• avoids taking 60% more land for 6 new lanes of freeway
• avoids legal battles to add runway to major California airports
• creates 150,000 jobs across the state that increase tax revenues to help repay the California HSR bond
• saves up to 12.7 million barrels of foreign oil per year
• saves 5.5 million tons of greenhouse gases from cars and airplanes/ year, reducing ozone in 7 of America's 15 worst air polluted cities including #1, Los Angeles
• prevents hundreds of additional auto accidents from occurring each year

California deserves this level of HSR funding, given it has been the biggest tax donor to the federal treasury for decades. It receives far less than it contributes in federal taxes and is forecast to add the population of today's New York state by 2050. Furthermore, in 2011, the Department of Defense spent $20 billion/year on air conditioning alone in Iraq and Afghanistan. Surely Congress can commit $8 billion/year for HSR in the next Surface Transportation Bill.

Unfortunately, the 2011-12 U.S. House of Representatives is blocking progress on HSR and Transit. Fortunately, President Obama continues pushing for more HSR and Transit funding in the next Surface Transportation Bill from Congress. If he succeeds, it will signal that America is once again, a nation that builds great things for the public good.

BIG STICKS FOR MOTIVATION AND A PEACE DIVIDEND TO FUND INTERSTATE HIGH SPEED RAIL

Though America is extracting more oil now than it has in any of the last 10 years, the pace of finding new oil reserves in America and the rest of world is gradually dwindling (see Peak Oil condition described in Part 3). Simultaneously, the rapidly growing economies of China and India are buying more oil. With tightening oil supplies, increasing oil demand and a global economic recovery, many energy analysts forecast gasoline prices to reach $10/gallon by 2020. Regardless of differences many in Congress have with President Obama on other issues, on transportation and energy used for transportation they must find common ground for many reasons.

As stated in Part 3 and Part 4 of this article, transportation consumes 70% of oil used in America and coal is used to produce 48% of electricity from power plants. For the energy challenges ahead, an overwhelming number of scientists and economists not employed by the oil industry tell us that we can not drill our way out of the coming oil shortage. Scientists also confirm that coal is the world's worst air pollutant contributing to Global Warming, acid rain and smog. As explained in Part 4, expanding highways only induces more oil consumption. Though higher MPG electric-hybrid autos, natural gas-powered buses, and better highway maintenance really help, we also need non-coal clean energy sources for power plants and a new electric grid sending electricity to Rapid Transit, Interstate HSR and electric cars.

Since we have to burn less oil for transportation without crippling our economy, the smart approach is to gradually eliminate foreign oil imports over 25 years. Over the same time, we can also reduce coal consumption by half as we shift to more wind, solar, natural gas, biofuel and tidal energy for power plants. Coal companies need not suffer economically because they own a lot of real estate that can be converted for biofuel, solar and wind energy.

Transportation Secretary LaHood estimates it will cost $500 billion to complete a comprehensive Interstate HSR System by 2035. Given the political cost of delay, its more likely to cost $650 billion. If we build it the right way however, private investors will pick up 15-25% of the tab. And under any funding scenario, Interstate HSR will cost half the $1.35 trillion taxpayers invested in Interstate Highways when oil was plentiful.


By ending ground wars to create another "Peace Dividend", the President and Congress can fund Interstate HSR and more Transit without raising taxes or increasing the federal deficit. U.S. troops were withdrawn from Iraq in 2011-end. President Obama is withdrawing more troops from Afghanistan in 2012. If reelected in November 2012, Obama plans to completely withdraw troops from Afghanistan in 2013-end, enabling Defense cuts of $175-200 billion/year beginning 2014. Obama wants to split that Peace Dividend between federal deficit reduction, education and infrastructure investment (transportation and sustainable energy).

Over the last two decades, more of our population has shifted to our Top 50 metro areas and we have underinvested in Surface Transportation. So the President proposes to nearly double the transportation budget and increase the percentage of Transit and Railroad funding from 23% to 36% with these amounts:

• Federal Highways $305 billion/6 years
• Federal Transit $108 billion/6 years
• Federal Railroads $47 billion/6 years (mostly HSR)

Should the President and Congress agree to a compromise on the Surface Transportation budget, our highest merit mega-regions will receive the largest chunks of HSR and Transit funds. Other mega-regions would get a larger percentage of Highway repair funds. Just like the old days, politicians representing urban and rural interests can both get more of what they want for the next 6 years without pork-barrel spending.

BIG CARROTS, IF THE TEA PARTY-LED HOUSE LEARNS THE ART OF EFFECTIVE COMPROMISE

By 2035, a comprehensive Interstate HSR System can save us the cost of 0.5 billion barrels of crude oil/year from foreign sources. The U.S. Energy Information Administration states the price of crude oil accounts for about 67% of the per-gallon gasoline price. If we had Interstate HSR today when crude oil costs roughly $100/barrel X 67% X 0.5 billion barrels of crude oil, an additional $33.5 billion/year would circulate in our economy, instead of transferring to foreign oil suppliers. At a projected $400/barrel of crude oil by 2035, an additional $134 billion/year would circulate domestically. Thus, investing in Interstate HSR today is like buying $5,000 solar panels to eliminate electric bills for the life of your new home.

Democratic and Republican governors who understand those macroeconomic benefits-to-costs are scaling up their applications for federal HSR funding. Now 37 governors want to to divvy up their share of Transit and HSR funds, including two governors who initially turned down HSR grants from the economic stimulus. Using Buy America requirements in contracts, every $1 invested in HSR and Transit generates $4-5 of domestic economic activity. More economic activity means more domestic jobs and ultimately, more tax dollars to pay down federal and state budget deficits.

Diametrically opposite the President, the Tea Party-led U.S. House of Representatives, many of whom are backed by oil, coal and defense industries, seem to hate Transit and HSR. In their "drill everywhere" Surface Transportation proposal, there would be even less Transit money and only scrap money for Northeast Corridor HSR. Instead of investing in infrastructure, they want to spend $200 billion more year on defense. Our nation already has far more state-of-the-art weapons, jets, submarines, aircraft carriers, battleships and communication apparatus than Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and the next 14 countries combined -- even at Obama's proposed budget to mildly reduce Defense spending.


Tea Party Republicans won the 2010 House elections, in part by pledging deficit reductions and smaller government. Yet, the Tea Party-led House is hiding the truth when they say America can't afford higher investment in Transportation, while refusing to cut Defense spending. The Tea Party-led House is scoring points with their financial backers, but ignoring our failing transportation infrastructure and energy security. That why the Transportation Secretary LaHood, a registered Republican, called them out in the video listed above.

I want to be very clear, this article is not a critique of Republicans as a whole, since the GOP has a long track record supporting new transportation infrastructure, Presidents Eisenhower (Highways) and Reagan (Transit) in particular. Eleven Republican governors applied for HSR funding from the economic stimulus and even more seek boosts to Transit funding.

Furthermore, bi-partisan vote in the Senate tried to strike a balance between the President and Tea Party-led House by approving a $109 billion transportation proposal for 18 months. The President is willing to approve the Senate's proposal, even though it does not address the scale of Highway and Transit maintenance backlog identified by the American Society of Civil Engineers. Nor is it sufficient for the next phase of his Interstate HSR vision. The President accepts the Senate proposal because in an election year, its better than the current Surface Transportation Bill.

I limit my critique to the Tea Party-Led House of Representatives who refuse to fix our transportation for political reasons. Unwilling to compromise for progress like Senate Republicans, the Tea Party-led House has only agreed to the 5th extension of the same inadequate Surface Transportation Bill out to 30 September 2012. The Tea Party-led House should be truthful and state, "We've changed our mission. Its more important to prevent President Obama from signing a jobs bill before the election, even though our transportation infrastructure is failing."

Voters will have the last say on this matter in November 2012.

PARTNERING OPPORTUNITY WILL ADD HSR MOMENTUM

If Obama succeeds, the Federal Railroad Administration can also strike a public-private-partnership that saves taxpayers big money on another HSR project.

The nation benefits from lower foreign oil consumption, less CO2 and less air traffic delay caused by the Los Angeles-San Francisco Bay Area-Las Vegas triangle. A private party claiming to have $2-3 billion from Las Vegas casinos, says they will help fund a 150 mph Desert Express train from Las Vegas to a city along the I-15 corridor, called Victorville. Given California HSR's $68.4 billion plan moves forward in 2012, by 2022, travelers from San Francisco, San Diego and Sacramento would love to reach Las Vegas in 3 hours. Travelers from Los Angeles would reach Las Vegas in just over 2 hours.

By law however, California DOT must use all HSR bond money to complete the California HSR Route. Therefore, California DOT can not invest in the Palmdale-Victorville-Las Vegas route. But California DOT knows that removing cars from congested California freeways and reducing airport congestion saves money on freeway and airport expansion, so it is non-financially supportive of Desert Express HSR.


First, Desert Express initial operational plan must extend to form a Las Vegas-Victorville-Palmdale route so it connects with California HSR at Palmdale. Second, the federal funding formula should lock-in that $2-3 billion casino money in a Desert Express HSR trust. Third, Desert Express should be funded consistent with good Interstate HSR benefits-to-cost strategy and its contractor selection should be carefully scrutinized. In that manner, the federal funding formula can be a mixture of grant and loans consistent with HSR funding policy that can be fairly applied to other Interstate HSR projects of similar scope. No sweetheart deals for Vegas casinos or Nevada politicians! Lastly, since Desert Express would also run through long straight desert, the Federal Railroad Administration, should stipulate that its builders purchase the same made-in-America trains and equipment as California HSR for 220 mph speed and manufacturing volume cost savings.

Whether President Obama is reelected or Romney pulls off an upset, bi-partisan demand by the Senate and 37 governors calls for significantly more federal HSR funding. The 2013-2014 U.S. House of Representatives can not continually fail in this responsibility. If only to create more jobs on their watch, the House will have to compromise on the next 6-year Surface Transportation Bill to help these high-merit, politically viable HSR corridors move forward:

• Boston-Providence-New Haven-NYC-Newark-Philadelphia-Wilmington-Baltimore-Washington
• San Francisco-San Jose-Fresno-Bakersfield-Palmdale-Los Angeles-Anaheim
• Milwaukee-Chicago-Springfield-St Louis-Kansas City
• New Haven-Hartford-Springfield
• Philadelphia-Harrisburg
• NYC-Albany
• Las Vegas-Victorville-Palmdale
• Washington-Richmond-Raleigh-Greensboro-Charlotte-Greenville-Atlanta
• Richmond-Norfolk
• Chicago-Gary-Kalamazoo-Detroit
• Chicago-Indianapolis-Cincinnati
• Vancouver-Seattle-Portland-Eugene


FINISHING TOUCHES ON A NEXT GENERATION, INTERMODAL TRANSPORTATION NETWORK

When more Federal Highway funding arrives to clear the maintenance backlog on highways, bridges and tunnels, it should add live traffic condition displays above freeways to improve traffic flow and lane modifications for electric-hybrid car priority. Given the Interstate Highway System is well past complete and urban highway expansion beyond 3 regular lanes and one HOV lane per side does not reduce congestion, only 5% of Federal Highway funds should be used expand regular highway lanes.

Federal Aviation funding should remain at the current level, but with greater emphasis on the NextGen Air Traffic Control System to reduce gridlock in the air and on the ground. NextGen, is the transformation of our radar-based air traffic control system to a more accurate satellite-based air traffic control system. This transformation is essential to safely accommodate more passengers per flight, smarter flight routes and runway efficiency, while complimenting procedures and technologies that reduce fuel burn, CO2, smog and noise by jets.

For decades, airlines in America have used a "Hub & Spoke" routing approach where flights route from regional airports to large hub airports in strings of 150-750 mile flights per crew shift. With that approach, Boeing 737 and Airbus A-320 jets spend more time inefficiently using fuel to take-off, descend and taxi on the ground. As a result, regional flights burn more fuel and generate more greenhouse gases per passenger.

Next generation 737 and A-320 jets will fly higher and cruise faster delivering 25% better fuel efficiency, 25% less CO2 & smog and less turbulence as more U.S. airline jet fleets turnover. Increasing demand for HSR trains will cut demand for sub-500 mile flights. To rebalance their operating economics for better profits, the big airlines can't wait to use NextGen jets and air traffic control system that will string together more 500-1500 mile flights per crew shift.

From a traveler's perspective, NextGen Air Traffic Control System and NextGen 737 and A-320 jets will reduce ground taxi-time, take-off delays, enable smoother flights around bad weather, higher speeds and quicker descent patterns that result in shorter flight times. For example, New York City-Los Angeles flight time will reduce by 30 minutes.

Though America is the world's last superpower, we have fast growing economic competitors giving chase in the 21st century. They are closing ground with smarter balanced transportation infrastructure that requires less oil and coal. An explosion of Rapid Transit across Europe, VHSR supertrains like the French AGV, and the Airbus selling worldwide are demonstrating that the European Union will match Asian transportation advances.

The Big Sticks of Global Economic Competition, Population Growth, Air Pollution, Peak Oil and Climate Change are threatening our way of life in 25 years. Responding to the same threats, America's economic competitors are preparing more quickly than us. But if America quickly ramps up Interstate HSR and Rapid Transit funding this decade, we can meet their challenge. And if we tie Interstate HSR, Rapid Transit and Electric-Hybrid Cars on smarter highways to the Smart Electric Grid complimented with a NextGen aviation system, we too can anchor a world-class Intermodal Passenger Transportation Network that embraces the oil-depleted future, rather than be punished by it.