ARE POLITICAL DYNAMICS FINALLY FAVORING TRANSPORTATION FUNDING?

Two mandates clear from the November 2012 Election are that Americans want Congress working with the President to help lower unemployment in the short term and reduce the federal deficit in the long term. The President stepped up to the challenge. Unfortunately, Congress hasn't stepped up yet. Now negotiation between the Congress and President is starting for the Fiscal Year 2014 federal budget that starts in October 2013.

President Obama withdrew U.S. troops from Iraq in 2011. U.S. troops in Afghanistan will draw down to 33,000 by December-end 2013. President Obama's outgoing Secretary of Defense announced that such troop withdrawals and other cuts to obsolete Defense programs would produce a $200 billion/year savings beginning in FY2014. Obama calls that money the "Peace Dividend." The President and Congressional Democrats want our Peace Dividend to fund more Transportation, Sustainable Energy and Education projects, while lowering the federal deficit.

The Congressional Republican counterpoint is to spend more money on Defense and if there is a Peace Dividend, all of it should go towards the federal deficit. That counterpoint would be stronger if Republicans fared better in the November 2012 Election. The President was reelected in an Electoral College landslide and now has 3 more U.S. Senators and 4 more U.S. Representatives supporting his budget position. The economic recovery is slower than everyone wants, but ongoing. Polls indicate most Americans favor Obama's budget position. Also, a third bridge collapse in the last 7 years spilled a train full of toxic chemicals in a river, drawing dramatic attention to our failing transportation infrastructure.

The President's stronger political position and another failed bridge won't dissolve hyper-partisan politics, but many moderate Republican Representatives in suburban districts were narrowly reelected. If more them listen to their constituents, a reasonable compromise with President Obama over federal transportation funding is possible by September 2013. If not, the Obama Administration will have less federal transportation funding to distribute using merit-based criteria. Under merit-based criteria, more rural-suburban Congressional districts will be narrowly excluded from the distribution.

Will moderate Republican Representatives of suburban-rural districts let that happen when they have a deficit-friendly alternative to produce more jobs for their constituents as well?

U.S. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE LAGGING BEHIND POPULATION AND GLOBAL COMPETITORS

From 1956, when President Eisenhower started funding the Interstate Highway System, until 1982, the quality and quantity of American transportation infrastructure was well matched to population distribution and fit nicely with cheap gasoline. Since then, we've spent a larger percentage of the federal budget on Defense, even in peace times. Of course we spend a lot more per gallon of gasoline too.


Between 1980-2010, we added 82 million people, overwhelmingly to our Top 50 Metro Areas. Over that same 30-year period, major philosophical differences in Congress emerged over highway, transit and railroad funding. Most Republicans came to represent rural-suburban areas only interested in highway funding. Most Democrats came to represent urban-suburban areas interested in a mix of transit and highway funding, with recent interest in HSR funding too. Fortunately, both parties support aviation funding.

Despite demographics favoring more urban-surburban transportation investment, Congress and Presidents have underinvested in transportation infrastructure and most of the smaller pot invested has been directed to rural-surburan Highway projects and airports. America has reduced its percentage of Transit investment since 1983. And prior to President Obama, we never significantly invested in HSR. Now our major metro areas and mega-regions rely on congested highways, bridges and airports that have earned this dangerous Transportation Infrastructure Report Card from the American Society of Civil Engineers.

Over that period, Europe and Asia have out-spent America in surface transportation infrastructure in per capita dollars AND as a percentage of GDP. The European Union is rushing to expand from 4,100 to 11,000 miles of HSR Network with frequent service by 2030, while dramatically expanding Rail Transit in major cities. Asia is rapidly expanding HSR and Rail Transit systems to achieve the Big Carrots described in Part 2. Leading nations in both continents have built or will build intercity tollway systems by 2020, as comprehensive as our Interstate Highway System.

With a substantially larger percentage of European and Asian nations' surface transportation becoming electric-powered, they can use any combination of nuclear, biofuel, natural gas, wind, solar, geothermal and hydro-electric energy to fuel their electric plants and transport more people. Despite the perils of rising gasoline prices, Middle East oil flare-ups, and power plants transitioning from coal, they will keep people moving.

As a result, America, who once had the world's best surface transportation infrastructure, has fallen 15-20 years behind our global economic competitors. As if that weren't bad enough, the U.S. Census Bureau forecasts 71 million additional residents between 2010-2040 -- mostly in Top 50 Metro Areas. Hence, without accelerated federal highway, transit and HSR investment, traffic congestion, potholes, bridges and tunnels will get dramatically worse.


Yet, the hyper-partisan, pre-election $109 Billion 2-Year Surface Transportation Bill signed in September 2012, cut Highway and Transit investment by 28% per year and zeroed-out HSR funding. Nor does the $18.5 billion Amtrak/HSR kick-start fulfill the backlog of HSR funding applications received from 37 governors.

If moderate Republican Representatives return to bi-partisan compromise on surface transportation investment, they can rely on support from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 20 CEOs of major logistical corporations, AAA, American Public Transport Association, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials and the Brookings Institution. Even staunchly conservative casino owners backing XpressWest want federal matching funds to match their private funding of a Las Vegas-California High Speed Rail line.

Given significantly more investment is required to reestablish energy-security for transportation, its good public policy to pass Obama's latest proposal to add $40 billion/5 year National High Performance Rail System proposal to enhance the nation’s manufacturing job growth and global competitiveness. Each transportation dollar would recycle 4-5 times, creating roughly 1 million jobs that generate taxes to pay down federal and state deficits. Obama's proposal also spreads job creation around to urban, suburban and rural districts.

In 2013-14, we can anticipate President Obama doing photo-ops with Republican and Democratic Governors as his 2009-10 Economic Stimulus-funded projects open. In contrast, Congressional Republicans don't have a successful jobs bill they can claim in over 20 years. Without their support on job creation, President Obama and Senate Democrats will dominate credit for leading the country from 10.2% unemployment down towards a possible 6.5% by November 2014.

One of the worst positions for a politician to be in after a recession, is being perceived as not creating jobs in their district or state. To avoid that perception, I believe that more Congressional Republicans in heavily suburban districts or states with Top 50 Metro Areas will recognize the need for "credited" job creation on their resume before the 2014 Election. They also don't want to see massive Defense industry lay-offs by 1 July 2013. So despite the political grandstanding at present, both parties know they need a budget deal by 30 June 2013. During or shortly after the Federal Budget Deal, don't be surprised if Congress agrees to increase Transportation funding, since its only 1/10th of Defense funding, yet generates significantly more domestic jobs per dollar invested.

2013 State of the Union Address: President Obama calls for a national HSR network
HSR PROJECTS LIKELY TO MOVE FORWARD

Interstate HSR will cost taxpayers half as much as expanding super-highways and airports. Several HSR corridors share track with commuter rail, and therefore co-qualify for federal and state transit funding that can cover 10% of costs. States will also invite private companies to build part of a HSR line and/or use Value Capture from Transit-Oriented Development. Whatever the mix, anticipate funding headed to these high-merit HSR corridors over the next 2-6 years:

200-220 MPH VHSR ROUTES
• San Francisco-San Jose-Gilroy-Fresno-Bakersfield-Palmdale-San Fernando Valley-Los Angeles-Anaheim
• Las Vegas-Victorville-Palmdale

160 MPH EXPRESS HSR ROUTES
• Boston-Providence-New Haven-NYC-Newark-Philadelphia-Wilmington-Baltimore-Washington

110 MPH EMERGING HSR ROUTES
• Philadelphia-Harrisburg
• Springfield-Hartford-New Haven
• Milwaukee-Chicago-Springfield-St. Louis
• Chicago-Kalamazoo-Detroit
• NYC-Albany-Rochester-Buffalo
• Washington-Richmond-Raleigh-Greensboro-Charlotte-Greenville-Atlanta
• Richmond-Norfolk
• Vancouver-Seattle-Portland-Eugene
• Charlotte-Greenville-Atlanta
• Chicago-Gary-LaFayette-Indianapolis-Cincinnati


It is essential that each 160-220 mph HSR project has a funding formula to "capture value" from businesses that benefit from Transportation-Oriented Development on and surrounding train-transit stations. Value Capture from owning or taxing shopping malls, hotels and offices built atop or next to busy train-transit stations is a major reason why Japanese and French passenger railroads operate at a profit. Wisely, NYC used that funding approach to upgrade Grand Central Terminal. Across America, the Value Capture approach can cover 10% of construction costs initially. As Interstate HSR System patronage grows, Value Capture will likely expand to cover 20-25% of project costs, as its doing in Europe and Asia.

If we build in earnest now, by 2035 the Interstate HSR System can be accessible to 80% of Americans, just as our Interstate Highway System is today. To get there, we can't just speed up a few routes to 110 mph. We must also accelerate construction of high speed Showcase Projects. Experienced HSR train companies like German Siemens, French Alstom, Canadian Bombardier, Japan Railways and Spanish Talgo will help American construction companies build our Interstate HSR System to world-class standards.

Furthermore, the USDOT has learned how to fund it right from Interstate Highway System funding mistakes. When the USDOT funded 85-90% of highway projects in the past, it led to many gold-plated highways and unjustifiable projects. With those lessons in mind, the USDOT should take Amtrak's gold-plated $151 billion 220 mph Northeast Corridor proposal to the woodshed, then exit with a more reasonable $90 billion proposal covering several complimentary 160-200 mph HSR projects in the 11-state Northeast Region.

Next the USDOT should cover 70% of California, XpressWest and Northeast Region showcase projects in Phase 1. Then, USDOT policy should taper federal funding down to 60% in Phases 2 and 3. In that manner, USDOT sets the national funding model for state & local authorities to confidently plan high-merit 10-20 year Showcase Projects that attract value capture from Transportation-Oriented Development. Since they don't want to be on the hook for 40% of costs in Phases 2 & 3, state & local authorities will be highly motivated to pick only high-merit projects that attract significant value capture from private sources.



Our Secretary of Transportation says it will cost $500 billion. If our federal government smartly accelerates $300 billion in funding over the next 23 years, it will attract $100 billion in state and local funding, and $100 billion in value capture from private sources. The combined $500 billion would produce an 11,000-mile Interstate HSR System that saves America the cost of importing 0.5 billion barrels of crude oil per year.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration states the price of crude oil accounts for about 67% of the per-gallon gasoline price. If the Interstate HSR System is completed when crude oil costs $400/barrel X 67% X 0.5 billion barrels, as anticipated by 2035, an additional $134 billion/year will circulate in our economy. Recirculating $134 billion each year makes that $400 billion upfront investment by taxpayers as smart as paying for your child to graduate from medical school.

FINISHING TOUCHES ON A NEXT GENERATION, INTERMODAL TRANSPORTATION NETWORK

When more Federal Highway funding arrives to clear the maintenance backlog on highways, bridges and tunnels, it should add live traffic condition displays above freeways to improve traffic flow and lane modifications for electric-hybrid car priority. Given the Interstate Highway System is complete and urban highway expansion beyond 3 regular lanes and one Electric-Hybrid/HOV lane per side does not reduce congestion, less than 3% of Federal Highway funds should be used to expand regular highway lanes.

For decades, airlines in America have used radar-based air traffic control to guide flights from regional airports to hub airports in a "Hub & Spoke" routing pattern. Domestic crew shifts typically strung together a series of 150-1000 mile flights. With the Hub & Spoke pattern, smaller regional jets spend more time inefficiently burning fuel to take-off, descend and taxi on the ground. As a result, regional flights burn more fuel and generate more greenhouse gases per passenger.

Construction of the NextGen Air Traffic Control System by 2020 will transition radar-based air traffic control to satellite-based air traffic control. As the Interstate HSR System cuts demand for sub-500 mile flights and NextGen Air Traffic Control enable more 500-1500 mile flights per crew shift, better avoid turbulence and waste less time on the ground. More big airports will extend Automated People Movers to Airport Transportation Centers that connect passengers to Rail Transit and HSR. This development will mitigate roadway congestion and airport smog from cars.


As most airline fleets turnover between 2015-25, next generation Boeing and Airbus jets will fly higher and cruise faster delivering 25% better fuel efficiency and 25% less CO2 & smog. For example, the Federal Aviation Administration projects that coast-to-coast flight time will reduce by a welcome 30 minutes.

Though America is the world's last superpower, we have faster growing global economic competitors this century. Excluding China's massive use of coal, their Intermodal Passenger Transportation Networks require less energy from oil and coal than ours. Though we hold our own in terms of Aviation, an explosion of Rapid Transit in their cities and HSR systems across Europe and Asia is lowering their passenger transaction costs, while increasing transportation-energy security.

The Big Sticks of Global Economic Competition, Population Growth, Worldwide Peak Oil, Climate Change, Air Pollution and productivity-robbing Traffic Congestion are threatening our way of life. But if America ramps up Interstate HSR and Rapid Transit funding this decade, we can catch up with Global Economic Competitors. Our largest trading partner, Canada, has major cities near our border that have large Rail Transit systems -- perfect for trans-border HSR like Europe. We should couple HSR with Highway upgrades for Electric-Hybrid Car priority, and vastly more American Rail Transit -- all plugged into a Smart Electric Grid that more efficiently conveys electricity. Complimented with a NextGen Aviation System, we can also anchor a secure world-class Intermodal Passenger Transportation Network that embraces the oil-depleted future, rather than be punished by it.

Tags: fast trains, French TGV, High Speed Rail, High Speed Rail in America, HSR, Interstate High Speed Rail