MORE BIG STICKS: POPULATION GROWTH, PERSISTENT AIR POLLUTION, PEAK OIL AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Our 21st century world is changing in several unpleasant ways. Oil supplies are costing more. Air pollution from coal burned by China now drifts into North America. Similarly, smog from North America drifts to Europe and Northern Africa. We hear about "Global Warming", yet in seeming contradiction, see record snowfall in many cities.

Before we can adjust to these new realities, it is important that we understand more Big Sticks that will punish us for inaction or the wrong action. Yes, it does affect our travel lifestyles.

POPULATION GROWTH HAPPENING FASTER THAN MOST PEOPLE REALIZE

In the Golden Years of driving before 1973, freeways and tollways were opening around the country and people often bragged about driving 80 mph for 300 to 400 miles. Excluding commute hours, even big city freeways were enjoyable because less traffic congestion allowed our "Angels of Courtesy" to prevail. Major lifestyle changes were afoot however, that chased away those angels.

Now America's transportation infrastructure is challenged to increase passenger capacity. To get a sense of the scale of additional passenger capacity we need, check out this list of dramatic growth extracted from the latest U.S. Census Bureau counts and forecasts:


America has been averaging 15% population growth each 20 years since 1960. More inner city residents moved to the sprawling suburbs seeking better schools, bigger houses, and spacious yards. A larger percentage of Americans moved from rural areas to the Top 100 Metro Areas forming mega-regions identified on the America 2050 Map illustrated below. Now everyone in top metro areas has to elbow for room on the road.


At a macro level, something else was showing up on radar screens of urban analysts for the federal government. As Americans sprawled further into the suburbs, we formed ever larger metro areas, that in turn, formed strings of metro areas ranging 100-500 miles in length. Urban analysts call these strings of metro areas "mega-regions", as seen on the America 2050 map. Since most travel originates inside mega-regions that generate most economic activity, our mega-regions became more at risk to anything that disrupts, congests or makes transportation more costly.

AIR POLLUTION, A PERSISTENT HEALTH PROBLEM DUE TO TRANSPORTATION

Thanks to government health regulations, fewer people and industries openly burn objects that create air particulates (soot), bringing visible improvement to old cities like Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Philadelphia and Baltimore. Autos now have catalytic converters that reduce ozone emissions from each gallon of gasoline. Nevertheless, transportation remains the largest contributor to smog because:

• population growth means more people purchasing vehicles
• sprawling metro areas require longer drives
• more vehicles per household
• people bought nearly as many SUVs, vans, trucks, sports & luxury cars as fuel-efficent small cars

Most people in large metro areas don't know that smog levels have not lowered to a point of safety. We seem resolved to accept more frequent "Smoggy Day-Stay Indoor" alerts from public health officials. It remains so bad that 125 million people in the U.S. lived in areas of Non-attainment for National Ambient Air Quality Standards, as last measured in 2003 by the EPA and USDOT. Non-attainment measures exposure to ozone (smog), air particulates, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, lead, sulfur dioxide, and volatile organic compounds. Smog emitted from transportation is linked to chronic lung disease and therefore, rising health care costs.

In 2010, the American Lung Association ranked metro areas for ozone pollution. This problem is particularly hazardous to California which dominated the Top 25:

1: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, CA
2: Bakersfield, CA
3: Visalia-Porterville, CA
4: Fresno-Madera, CA
5: Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Yuba City, CA
6: Hanford-Corcoran, CA
7: Houston-Baytown-Huntsville, TX
8: San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
9: San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA
10: Charlotte-Gastonia-Salisbury, NC-SC
11: Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
12: Merced, CA
13: Dallas-Fort Worth, TX
14: Knoxville-Sevierville-La Follette, TN
15: El Centro, CA
16: New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT
16: Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA
18: Cincinnati-Middletown-Wilmington, OH-KY-IN
19: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Gainesville, GA
19: Birmingham-Hoover-Cullman, AL
21: Las Vegas-Paradise-Pahrump, NV
22: Modesto, CA
22: Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE
24: Chico, CA
25: Baton Rouge-Pierre Part, LA

San Francisco avoids this list because its located on a narrow isthmus receiving Pacific Ocean breezes that blow from west to east and it has a considerable transit network. Also note that New York metro area has 25 times the population of Bakersfield metro area, yet lower ozone pollution due to having one of the world's largest electric-powered subway systems.

CLIMATE CHANGE, ANOTHER REALLY BIG STICK

Although we have compelling air quality reasons to reduce smog and soot in each city and acid rain in each region, the increase in CO2 (carbon dioxide) worldwide has scientists most worried. Surface temperature of the Earth will soon be 2 degrees Fahrenheit higher than 1900 due to increasing CO2. That means air and water temperature are already rising enough to melt Arctic and Antarctic permafrost and glaciers.

More ominously, a 2009 study by the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration says that Global Warming is irreversible in our grandchildren's lifetimes. The study examines the consequences of allowing CO2 to peak beyond present-day concentrations of 385 parts/million and then completely halting emissions after the peak. If CO2 is allowed to peak at 450-600 parts/million, the study authors found evidence to quantify irreversible climate impacts for thousands of years. Simulated impacts in the study included draughts in key regions around the globe, higher ocean temperatures contributing to more powerful hurricanes, and a rising global sea level that could change shorelines as early as 2050-75. That's a horrible legacy to leave our grandkids.


I acknowledge scientists who argue that CO2 from human activity is coincidental to rather than causal to accelerated Global Warming. But the most compelling evidence from way more scientists concludes that man-made CO2 emissions are the biggest cause of accelerated Global Warming. I vote with the majority of scientists on this game-over issue.

PEAK OIL, A PROBLEM WE CAN'T ESCAPE

In 1956, a scientist named M. King Hubbert considered population growth rate to be a major factor when he accurately predicted that America would hit its maximum oil production between 1965-70, by developing what is now called "Peak Oil Theory." The concept of Peak Oil is the point of maximum oil production followed by depletion of oil due to falling reserves and discoveries.

The Peak Oil Era began for America in 1970. Shortly after hearing the bad news, President Nixon admonished Congress, "We must end our dependence on foreign oil by 1980." Even then, electric-powered HSR was touted as one way to cut our oil consumption traveling between cities. Yet when Congress addressed HSR, the prevailing counterpoints were that we produce most of our own oil, have only one 30-million person corridor in the Northeast that can operate HSR at a profit, and hassle-free commuter flights were cheap. We could afford to flippantly accept those counterpoints when crude oil cost under $15 per barrel and gasoline cost under 30 cents/gallon.

Instead, we should have perceived those "Cheap Oil Days" as sand drifting through an hourglass.


The first hourglass warning occurred when OPEC orchestrated an oil shortage in 1973. After driving prices to a more profitable level, OPEC eased off the oil embargo. There was plenty of public uproar by Congress, but the automotive industry needed time to to change car designs and manufacturing lines. Giving the industry more time, Congress introduced Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for autos sold in America, which President Ford signed into law in 1975. When President Carter took office in 1977, he repeated Nixon's admonishment to Congress. To show he meant business, Carter lowered freeway & tollway speed limits from 70-80 mph down to 55 mph. Due to popular backlash and an OPEC orchestrated oil price reduction, consumer pressure quickly forced Congress to return to 65-80 mph speed limits seen today. A second OPEC oil shortage occurred in 1979 that triggered panic buying in America. Once Saudi Arabia began shipping us more oil in 1980, the American psyche was wet-nursed to feeling better about oil again, albeit at a higher price.

I'll summarize key points from 1980 to 2010 that give important context about our precarious situation. President Reagan nudged CAFE standards slightly higher than President Carter. President Bush I nudged CAFE standards slightly higher than President Reagan. President Clinton did not increase CAFE standards, but his rapid transit initiatives were cut in half and his Northeast Corridor HSR Kickstart (Amtrak Acela) was stalled until he left office and underfunded. President Bush II did not increase CAFE standards, only agreed to minimum rapid transit funding, and publicly announced that he'd like to kill Amtrak. Year after year, super-highways kept getting 40 times more federal funding than Amtrak and 6 times more than transit. Even then, most transit and Amtrak expenditures went to the Northeast Corridor.

Over the same period, we expanded airport capacity and doubled regional flights nationwide. Though the original Interstate Highway System map completed in 1992, we kept adding to it, thereby extending metro area sprawl deeper into virgin land. And from 1990-2010, politicians let CAFE standard for cars remain at 27.5 MPG, while Americans drive longer distances each day.

As a result since 1980, population growth, suburban sprawl and regional flights amplified oil consumption.


U.S. DEPENDENT ON FOREIGN OIL, COMPETITION LOOMS

Today, America has only 5% of world population, yet consumes 25% of world oil production. We have so little easy-to-access Cheap Oil that we allow companies to drill in deep water for "Risky Oil", one time with catastrophic results in the Gulf of Mexico. As the world economy recovers, America's oil imports are dangerously high and we are no longer the only "big dog" buying oil.

Notice the oil consumption uptrends by the world's most populous nations, China and India. Oil analysts are projecting 3 billion people in the combination of China and India with explosive middle class growth that also fancies oil-consuming autos.


In April of 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy last reported this Top 15 List of Crude Oil Import Sources:

1. Canada
2. Saudi Arabia (OPEC)
3. Mexico
4. Venezuela (OPEC)
5. Nigeria (OPEC)
6. Iraq (OPEC)
7. Columbia
8. Russia
9. Angola (OPEC)
10. Brazil
11. Algeria (OPEC)
12. Ecuador
13. Norway
14. Congo
15. Azerbaijan

In 2011, 33 of the 48 largest oil producing nations hit Peak Oil, including Mexico in 2004. In the decades ahead, Mexico and Russia will likely keep a larger percentage of their declining oil reserves to power their own economic growth. Only OPEC nations and Brazil will be able turn up the spigot. What if Brazil and Columbia join OPEC? What if there's upheaval in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela or Columbia?

Its true that oil companies are extracting more oil in North America faster than expected this decade. But that good news is only expect to last maybe 12-15 years. Without drastic changes to energy and transportation policies, we will be unprepared for the drop in new oil finds and reluctant to oil drill off the West Coast for environmental safety reasons. The percentage of imported OPEC oil could easily reach 60% by 2025 and increase each year thereafter. Considering that oil powers 70% of our transportation, that is NOT an underlying condition for economic security. America, the world's most oil-addicted nation, must now ponder these facts:

(A) The Middle East is more politically volatile, yet dominates the price of oil worldwide
(B) Oil demand by China and India is on pace to surpass America by 2025-ish
(C) U.S. Department of Energy anticipates significantly higher prices for oil by 2035.

Our situation boils down to this simple, alarming equation:


MORE DOMESTIC RISKY OIL IS NOT THE SOLUTION

The Institute for Energy Research, a "Drill Baby, Drill" think tank, acknowledges the coming oil shortage, but since they drink oil for Kool-Aid, their solution recommends that the U.S. Department of Energy issue more licenses to pursue Risky Oil and Natural Gas in Alaskan national parks, the Lower 48 states, offshore and by acquisition from Canada. When pursuing shale oil and natural gas underground, I believe the oil & gas industry as a whole would safely conduct deepwater drilling, just as several ExxonMobil ads suggest. But as we've seen in the BP Gulf of Mexico disaster, safety procedures by some deep well contractors are open to question.

That news is not comforting to the average American because scientists can forecast with 100% certainty that there will be more well leaks. Most will be minor. But it only takes one deep well in 5,000 to go terribly wrong like the BP spill. Without proper safety regulation and enforcement, it could toxify water to a town, city or region without our government knowing who is responsible. So more safety regulation will by default, boost domestic oil extraction costs passed on to consumers.

America should treat the recent surge in domestic oil extraction as bonus sand placed in the hourglass. We must use that bonus sand to shift to non-oil transportation across America as fast as we can plan and execute. But how much oil do we need to reduce? How fast can smarter transportation choices help us do it? See Part 4 for ideas.

Tags: Interstate High Speed Rail